Tiberius Caesar's Fifteenth (15th) Year

Table1 Least Square Regression Results
method	ADa	χb BC	Exodus	Temple
Norm'zld	27.1	4BC	1462BC	975BC
All	30.1	1BC	1459BC	972BC
a	b	c	d	e

The Gregorian Date for the Fifteenth Year of Tiberius Caesar was determined using least squares regression analysis and consensus statistical analysis applied to the Chronology by Prophecy method. The most likely date of Tiberius Caesar’s 15^th year was determined by this analysis to be 27AD using a normalized data set and 30AD without normalization, Table 1. The results are shown in Table 1 Column b. Table 1 also shows Christ birth year (col.c), Exodus year (col.d), and year of Solomon’s Temple Completion (col.e), based on these two results. The most likely correct date of Tiberius Caesar’s 15^th year is 27AD. This consideration is from a birth year for the baby Jesus of 1BC is too late by most chronologists.

Table 2

Tiberius Caesar 15th Year by Exodus Date using LSR & Chronology by Prophecy X year dY(X) χa AD dY CbP err min Ref.a 1626 1652.1 27.1 1488.5 26761 Ref1 1552 1578.1 27.1 1488.5 8026 Ref2 1538 1564.1 27.1 1488.5 5714 Ref3 1513 1539.1 27.1 1488.5 2559 Ref4 1462 1488.1 27.1 1488.5 0 Ref5 1461 1487.1 27.1 1488.5 2 Ref6 1452 1478.1 27.1 1488.5 108 Ref7 1450 1476.1 27.1 1488.5 154 Ref8 1446 1472.1 27.1 1488.5 269 Ref9 1313 1339.1 27.1 1488.5 22324 Ref0 1225 1251.1 27.1 1488.5 56364 Ref11 30.1AD all or AD 27.1 Norm'zld 66.0

Table 3 (below)

Tiberius Caesar 15th Yr. by Solomon Temple Completion Date using LSR & CbP Tc year dY(X) χa AD dY CbP err min Ref.b 949 975.1 27.1 1000.9 666 Ref1 953 979.1 27.1 1000.9 476 Ref2 964 990.1 27.1 1000.9 117 Ref3 968 994.1 27.1 1000.9 46 Ref4 973 999.1 27.1 1000.9 3 Ref5 974 1000.1 27.1 1000.9 1 Ref6 1000 1026.1 27.1 1000.9 634 Ref7 1004 1030.1 27.1 1000.9 852 Ref8 30.1 AD all or AD 27.1 Norm'zld 14.6

As given in Table 1, the most likely year for Israel’s Exodus from Egypt would be 1462BC and the most likely date for the completion year of Solomon’s Temple would be 975BC for Tiberius Caesar’s 15^th year being 27AD.

Method

·         A grand total of 19 dates were used to statically determine Tiberius Caesar’s 15^th year. The method used least squares minimization of error difference. Two error functions were computed and averaged.

·         The 1^st is the difference between TC’s 15^th years and the Exodus date as determined by various workers. Chronology by Prophesy determined there to be 1488.5 years difference between these two dates. See Table 2 to review method calculation.

·         The second error function (Table 3) looked at the years between TC’s 15^th year and the completion date for Solomon’s temple. CbP finds the year difference to be 1000.9. The error function minimized the difference between provided data and 1000.9 years.

·         The RMS sum of the error is then minimized by changing the assumed correct base year for TC’s 15^th year using the Solver routine of Excel to find min error.

·         A further refinement was made by tossing out the high and low years for the 2 events (Exodus and Temple Completion). AKA normalization

·         This overall method is known as consensus forecasting.

The method of Chronology by Prophesy (CbP) has been discussed by this author in other papers. CbP found there to be 1488.5 years from TC’s 15^th year and the Exodus and 1000.9 years from Solomon’s Temple Completion unto TC’s 15^th year.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/232990282/Tiberius-Caesar-s-Fifteenth-Year